Evacuation warnings issued in burn zones as major rainstorm slams into L.A.
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? The peak of the storm is forecast for Thursday.
? Evacuation warnings will be in effect in parts of the Palisades, Hurst and Sunset fire burn zones Thursday.
Officials raced to prepare for possible debris flows in areas burned during the January fires as a strong storm moved into Southern California on Wednesday, prompting evacuation warnings in burn zones across L.A. County.
These evacuation warnings will be in effect from 7 a.m. Thursday to 2 p.m. Friday — when the heaviest rain is expected — in burned areas where the risk of mudslides and debris flows is likely to be the highest, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department. The Pacific Palisades will be limited to resident-only access while the warnings are in effect, according to the Mayor Karen Bass’ office.
High-risk areas in the Palisades include the Getty Villa area, the Highlands neighborhood, the Bienveneda area near Temescal Canyon Park, the Reseda Boulevard and Marinette Road area near Will Rogers State Park, and in Mandeville Canyon above Tanners Road. Burned portions of Topanga and Malibu are also under warnings.
Further warnings are in effect around the Eaton fire burn zone in Altadena in areas near the San Gabriel Foothills; the Sunset fire burn zone in Runyon Canyon; by the Oakridge Mobile Home Park, which is near the Hurst fire burn zone in Sylmar; and areas north of Mountain Gate Drive by the Kenneth burn scar in West Hills.
The Los Angeles Police Department will visit households in the highest-risk areas to issue specific evacuation orders.
Meanwhile, the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District announced that all Malibu campuses would be closed Thursday due to road closures and weather concerns.
In preparation for the storm, crews have rushed to clear out 154 basins designed to catch mud, rocks and other debris from tumbling into neighborhoods. They have also installed thousands of sandbags, K-rails and compost filter socks — a type of berm — to keep dangerous debris from flowing into storm drains and out into the ocean.
In some areas, authorities were planning to use roadways to capture sediment, due to the amount of rubble and ash still in the burn scar areas, L.A. County Public Works Director Mark Pestrella said during a news conference Wednesday.
Pestrella said officials had also contacted properties adjacent to burned slopes to alert residents to the risk of possible landslides. Evacuation orders could be on the horizon, he said.
Anyone who lives in an area with a burned slope behind their home is at risk, Pestrella said, and he urged them to reach out to the agency by Wednesday afternoon with any concerns.
“This great event, it does present a higher risk to our residents,” he said, “particularly those that are living within the burn scars — not only Palisades, Eaton fire areas, but any burn scar area within the last year.”
Although last week’s storms brought only mild rain to the area, officials said it was enough that the basin at the Eaton wash dam filled with debris. Crews have since removed 150,000 cubic yards of mud, vegetation and rocks from that basin to give it additional capacity for this storm, Pestrella said.
Pestrella emphasized that officials had prepared for the incoming storm and that debris basins should have enough room for the size of the storm that’s anticipated. He added that crews had been working “24/7 for the last couple weeks trucking debris out of these areas.”
The first wave of what was expected to be the strongest storm of the winter began hitting Southern California on Wednesday, but the most damaging rains, which bring an enhanced risk of debris flows, are expected Thursday.
Los Angeles County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath said she understood that Angelenos might be experiencing “emergency fatigue” but urged people not to ignore this storm.
“Staying on high alert for this extended period of time is challenging,” Horvath said. “Stay with us, stay informed.”
Rain will be hitting virtually all parts of California this week, from the Bay Area to San Diego County.
A worst-case scenario for L.A. County in this storm could involve heavy rainfall over recently burned areas that dissolves soil into flows of debris barreling down hillsides at speeds of up to 35 mph, covering cars and homes with thick muck and putting them at risk of being struck by boulders.
“When you wake up tomorrow morning and you’re looking outside and you just kind of see that light, moderate rainfall, know that heavier rainfall could occur at any time,” said Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the weather service’s office in Oxnard. “Things could escalate very fast.”
The highest risk for debris flows and road flooding in Los Angeles County was expected to be between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m. Thursday. For Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, the peak risk is slightly earlier, from Thursday morning through the evening.
After blistering criticism that Southern California officials weren’t prepared ahead of the historic firestorms, government authorities say they have worked to reduce the risk of flooding impacts.
In Southern California this week, Kittell said the most likely outcome was “shallow” debris flows in burn scar areas, covering roads with mud. Thicker mudflows might be capable of immersing parked cars in mud.
“There’s also a risk for more significant debris flows, where it starts to impact a few vulnerable structures,” Kittell said. “While that isn’t the most likely outcome, the risk is there.”
Flood watches, in effect for all recent burn areas in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, are set to take effect starting at 10 a.m. Thursday and lasting through 10 p.m. A flood watch for Santa Barbara County’s Lake fire burn scar will be in effect from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. Thursday.
And all of San Luis Obispo County will be under a flood watch from 4 a.m. until 6 p.m. Thursday.
A flood watch is also expected for a wide swath of San Diego and Orange counties and the Inland Empire beginning Thursday morning and lasting through late Thursday night.
The highest risk of excessive rainfall — the type that could produce flash flooding — will be in downtown L.A., South L.A., the Westside, the San Gabriel and San Fernando valleys, and large swaths of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.
In Northern California, soils around the San Francisco Bay Area may be sufficiently saturated by Thursday morning. There may be “widespread shallow landslides” in the wettest areas, the weather service office in Monterey said, adding that strong winds could lead to damaged trees and power outages.
Meteorologists were closely watching for potential flooding of Sonoma County’s Russian River near Guerneville and Mark West Creek, and the San Lorenzo River, which travels through the heart of Santa Cruz County.
Flood watches were expected in San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Monterey, Sonoma and Marin counties from 10 p.m. Wednesday to 10 p.m. Saturday. From Wednesday night through Friday, a flood watch was also expected for the Sierra foothills east of the San Joaquin Valley.
Heavy snow was expected in the Sierra Nevada, with 2 to 4 feet expected along the Sierra crest near Lake Tahoe, and 10 to 18 inches at lake level. In Mono County, home to Mammoth Mountain, 4 to 5 feet of snow could fall along the Sierra crest.
In Southern California, burn areas most at risk are those scorched in the Palisades and Franklin fires in Pacific Palisades and Malibu; the Eaton fire in the Altadena area; and the Bridge fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, west and southwest of Wrightwood.
“They’re in areas which tend to get enhanced rainfall amounts and rates,” Kittell said. But all fresh burn scars have some risk of debris flows.
Over the three-day storm, the Palisades scar area is expected to receive between 3 and 4 inches of rain; the Eaton scar, 5.08 inches; and the Bridge scar, 5.27 inches. Downtown Los Angeles could get 2.02 inches of rain; Long Beach, 1.99 inches; Santa Barbara, 2.79 inches; San Luis Obispo, 3.60 inches; and Cambria, 4.22 inches.
The last time downtown L.A. received that much rain was the 2024 Easter weekend storm, March 29-31, when 2.1 inches fell. The difference with that storm, however, is that it came following two consecutive wet winters, and did not follow severe wildfires.
By Friday, Palm Springs could get seven-tenths of an inch of rain; San Diego, up to 1.5 inches; Riverside, Irvine, Oceanside, Escondido and San Clemente, up to 2 inches; San Bernardino and Riverside, up to 2.5 inches.
For San Diego and Orange counties and the Inland Empire, the storm is expected to be neither a washout nor “the worst storm we’ve ever seen,” said Alex Tardy, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in San Diego.
Although “not catastrophic,” he said, “we are going to see some locally heavy rainfall, and that could cause some flooding, especially mud and debris on our burn scars, and then your normal urban flooding.”
Officials in Orange County issued a voluntary evacuation warning for the Trabuco Canyon, Hot Springs Canyon, Bell Canyon, Long Canyon and Modjeska Canyon areas because of the risk of debris flows near the Airport fire burn scar. The evacuation warning will take effect beginning at 8 a.m. Thursday.
They also advised people to stay off the roads if possible on Thursday and heed evacuation warnings if they are issued. On Wednesday, Santa Barbara County issued an evacuation order for portions of the area in and around the burn zone of the Lake fire in the mountains north of Los Olivos. That fire scorched more than 38,000 acres in the Los Padres National Forest in 2024.
And in San Bernardino County, officials issued an evacuation warning at 6 p.m. for the community of Highland, along the Line fire burn scar. That fire ignited in September and scorched 43,978 acres in the San Bernardino National Forest. Justin Wayne Halstenberg, of Norco, was charged with 11 arson-related crimes for allegedly starting the Line fire.
As forecasters watch the burn scars, they’ll be paying particular attention to rainfall rates. The risk for debris flow in recently burned areas starts at around half an inch per hour.
“With our burn scars, intensity trumps total accumulations,” Kittell said. “So it’s not how much rain falls over a long period of time, but how much rain falls in a short period of time.”
Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties could see intense rainfall rates of between half an inch to 1 inch per hour during the peak of the storm.
“Enhanced cells,” he said, could bring short bursts of precipitation — “30 to 60 minutes of pretty intense rainfall.”
The risk of thunderstorms has increased and is now estimated to be 10% to 20% on Thursday, up from 5% to 10%, Kittell said.
Significant wind gusts from the south are expected. Covina and downtown L.A. could see peak wind gusts of 21 mph; Long Beach, 23 mph; Redondo Beach and Canoga Park, 25 mph; Santa Barbara, 26 mph; Santa Clarita, 39 mph; Thousand Oaks, 28 mph; Pyramid Lake, 45 mph; San Luis Obispo and Santa Maria, 40 mph; and Lancaster and Acton, 54 mph.
“These are some pretty high numbers, especially if you look at the Central Coast,” Kittell said. Areas of the Central Coast, including around Cambria, are at high risk of downed trees.
Officials urged residents to sign up for emergency alerts with their local agencies. In Los Angeles County, residents can sign up at Ready.LACounty.gov.
They also advised people to stay off the roads if possible Thursday and heed evacuation warnings.
After this storm exits, no more rain is expected next week, and possibly for the rest of February, Kittell said. Forecasters expect warmer weather starting this weekend.
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